OJOKOLO Olawale Gbolabo, (Political/Social Commentator) Twitter: @ojokologbolabo
Academics, social commentators, critics, supporters and opposition members of the ruling APC and the former ruling PDP not surprisingly defer on the reasons why there was a change of government in 2015 and why the APC won and the PDP lost.
To the critics of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, PDP, the ruling party at the time had failed so miserably that the people had no choice but to pass a vote of no confidence on the party at the general elections of February 2015. Still others opined that the external supports that the APC enjoyed from America was the sole reason the then newly formed opposition party triumphed at the polls in 2015. Just like most social issues and discourse the aforementioned reasons do contain some truths but not all the truths I dare say.
Solving the puzzle for the All Progressive Congress, APC, victory
What is conspicuously missing in the list of adduced reasons above is the ‘Theory of Class Suicide’ as the catalyst for the change of reins of leadership from the PDP to the APC.
Class suicide succinctly put is dying to the privilege class of one’s birth- for instance, taking a step with no return- and thus sacrificing one’s own privilege position and power in favour of full identification with the oppressed. How does this relate to the general elections of 2015? The APC was formed after governors elected on the tickets of the PDP decamped to the ACN in 2014 and not only that some serving Senators, House of Representatives members and state House of Assembly members also broke ranks with the then behemoth, the PDP.
Seeing as the PDP had been in power since 1999 and won all general elections against an ever-changing opposition one could not bet against another PDP victory in 2015 even though the people saw the government of Goodluck Jonathan as clueless directionless and grossly incompetent. There was lethargy to change the ruling party as Nigerians felt powerless in the face of the leviathan that PDP had become and how well the party was perceived to have mastered the art of rigging elections and silencing the opposition.
Bear in mind the great inroad the party made into the West in the 2003, 2007 and 2011 elections and how only Lagos was the state to escape the takeover onslaught of a party whose chairman once boasted would be in power for the next 60 years.
Even though the Theory of Class suicide connotes that the people of a privileged class takes steps that are irreversible by identifying with the oppressed class in a society thereby leading to the death of the established order one cannot categorically state that the defected politicians either took a step that was irreversible nor identified with the oppressed Nigerians out of any altruistic motives but like Machiavelli would say the ends justifies the means.
Therefore, no matter the ulterior motives of the politicians that ‘committed’ the class suicide the outcome was the implosion of the PDP and it eventual loss at the polls, the first at the general elections in five attempts.
The future of the All Progressive Congress, APC
The ruling APC is facing a similar implosion with the politics of 2023 threatening to expose the unholy alliance and incongruous contradiction that the APC has been since its formation in 2014. With the defeats of the party at Supreme court which robbed the party of victories won at the polls due to administrative lapses that some blame on the now embattled chairman of the party, Adams Oshomole. The alignments and realignments which led to the fall of PDP and the rise of the APC is now playing out yet again in what might turn out to be the salvation and messianic intervention that the people of Nigeria need if the APC is to be defeated at the polls in 2023.
The reason for this conclusion is the fact that Nigerian voters are yet to demonstrate a capacity to vote out a non performing government without the kind of internal implosion that engulfed the PDP in 2015. And now that the APC is self-imploding and it members’ hell bent on class kamikaze, Nigerians should pray that the party goes the way of PDP in 2015 so that another wave of change can sweep over the country come 2015.